David, it looks like no one has answered “how to manage the change curve and appropriately balance Flash with canvas while things sort themselves out.”
Not that I have THE answer, of course … but in the classroom I’m grappling with this just as you are. You’ve seen from my blog that I am learning as much as I can about where we are, exactly, with HTML5. I’m not sure what the tipping point is, where I will start to literally teach HTML5 or expect students to know it — instead of XHTML. But I’ve got my ear to the ground.
I’m also thinking it’s time NOW to add some JavaScript to the advanced online design/production course. I think students at that level need to be able to find a jQuery tutorial and put it to use. For that, they’re going to need some JavaScript know-how.
One luxury we have in the classroom (that the professionals don’t have) is that we do not have to build everything to run perfectly on all major browsers. I foresee a cumbersome transition period in the near future, especially with the laggard IE to contend with.